A revolt has sprung up inside and outside of BNP house against the misgovernment, corruption. autocracy. misdeeds, wrong activities. misuse of power and mischievous attempt to establish 'monarchy' by "Queen" Khaleda and "Crown Prince" Tarek Zia. The lust for power has blinded Khaleda Zia so much so that she has set up a parallel centre of power in Hawa Bhaban with a view to making her son Tarek Zia a future king or at least a 'Prime Minister' of the country. But this has been facing a challenge from within her own BNP. Many senior and influential leaders have revolted terming Tarek Zia's leadership as immature and corrupt. Under the circumstances the ruling BNP is torn asunder. The party is confronted with a rebellion of the senior leaders of the party on the one hand and on the other with mass upsurge against utter failure in the supply of water and electricity, discontent on the uncontrollable price spiral all around, country¬wide protest programme of school teachers and outbursts of labour especially in the garment sector. On top of it is the unending movement of the opposition in the streets such as the 'siege of Dhaka' or the siege of EC offices all over the country pressing for electoral reforms and resignation of the incompetent and corrupt government . The top leaders of the government do not know how to face these manifold problems as their term of office is coming to an end. It was always a government without effective coordination, now it is a rudderless collection in utter bewilderment.

The leadership and authority of Tarek Rahman is now faced with a challenge after the undisputed supremacy of long four and a half years. Exercising authority beyond Party rules, making room for his followers in the government, undertaking programmes bypassing the senior leaders and securing most lucrative business for the followers of the Bhaban, Hawa Bhaban became identified as an alternative centre for power. These high-handed steps along with involvement of Tarek Rahman in some unsavoury activities rendered his leadership questionable to many leaders and workers of the party. Tarek Rahman has built up a negative image of himself as the godfather of godfathers.

Senior leaders think that in the coming election the followers of these godfathers of his liking will get priority in the nomination of candidates for parliament and many fear that senior leaders.. not trustworthy to Tarek Rahman, may be deprived of such nomination in future. It is known that the majority of young Ministers of this government owe allegiance to Tarek Rahman. In future he will try to induct his followers in more posts of leadership of the Party as well as of the Government. The Prime Minister desires that the main leadership of the party remain with Tarek Rahman. Recently in discussions with a private television, a member of the National Standing Committee (NSC) of the BNP and a former Minister Col. (Retd.) Oli Ahmed told that he was not prepared to abide by the orders of Tarek Rahman. Tarek Rahman is a Joint Secretary of the Party and Oli Ahmed is a member of the Standing Committee for more than 22 years. He clearly stated, "I can obey the orders of the Chairman of the party, not of any other." Before leaving for a foreign trip Col. Oli further told that the leadership of BNP is now in the hands of corrupt and immature persons.

Recently this internal feud has openly come to the fore in a nasty way centering round the rivalry between Finance Minister and BNP Standing Committee's senior leader Saifur Rahman and Tarek Rahman's blessed godfather of Sylhet Ilyas Ali MP. It is almost certain that the farewell knell for Saifur Rahman has rung. The threat of resignation by Saifur Rahman failed to produce any action against Ilyas Ali and Saifur had to demonstrate his local support to keep his own place.

BNP leaders of various stages have alleged that Tarek Rahman's close friend businessman Giasuddin Mamun of the notorious "Khawab Bhaban" of Gazipur has dragged him greatly into these internal and external disputes in the Party. The leaders of BNP believe that Mamun's business has flourished by leaps and bounds mainly due to his influence with Tarek Rahman. There is a lot of resentment for this reason as well even among Ministers and leaders who are followers of Tarek Rahman. After BNP came to power Mamun has conducted many businesses in his own name or in the name of others. He is also the Managing Director of a private television "Channel I ". which has recently started transmission. Of course, the main power behind Channel I is Tarek Rahman and he is also the real principal of all the trades and businesses conducted in the name of Mamun. The story about the alleged forfeiture of money smuggled out by Prime Minster and Tarek Rahman in Malaysia has now become a point of various discussions among leaders and supporters of BNP.

Two divisions are now apparent in the BNP. Many of the leaders who held important positions in the Party from its birth are now sidetracked. We know that the founder Secretary General Dr Badruddoza Chowdhury was hounded out very unceremoniously after he became the President of the country, reportedly because of Hawa Bhaban's animosity. It is obvious hat except the Secretary General of the Party and Minister for LGRD Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan and Dr. Khandakar Mosharraf Hossain, Minister for Health & Family Welfare, other members of the National Standing Committee are not given much importance in party activities. BNP sources indicate that despite their being members of NSC Col Oli Ahmed MP, Chief Whip Khandaker Delwar Hossain, Law Minister Barrister Moudud Ahmed, Minister Two divisions are now apparent in the BNP. Many of the leaders who held important positions in the Party from its birth are now sidetracked. We know that the founder Secretary General Dr Badruddoza Chowdhury was hounded out very unceremoniously after he became the President of the country, reportedly because of Hawa Bhaban's animosity. It is obvious hat except the Secretary General of the Party and Minister for LGRD Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan and Dr. Khandakar Mosharraf Hossain, Minister for Health & Family Welfare, other members of the National Standing Committee are not given much importance in party activities. BNP sources indicate that despite their being members of NSC Col Oli Ahmed MP, Chief Whip Khandaker Delwar Hossain, Law Minister Barrister Moudud Ahmed, Minister

After the last meeting of the NSC held 4 and half years ago, these leaders participated only in Parliamentary Board meetings held before a by¬election. Tanvir Ahmed Siddique also expressed his displeasure against the opportunist and corrupt leaders. An influential central leader and former Speaker Sheikh Razzak Ali has threatened to resign from the Party if he is not given nomination in the coming election. Besides, Joint Secretary of the party Whip Ashraf Hossain. Lt. General (Retd.) Mir Shawkat Ali BU, Kabir Hossain MP (former Minister), MP Mushfiqur Rahman MP (former CSP officer) and expelled MP Abu Hena (former government officer) are also quite aggrieved.

Members of Parliament Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury. L. K. Siddiqui, Harunur Rahsid Khan Munno. Redwan Ahmed, AKM Mosharraf Hossain, who were dropped from the BNP Alliance Council of Ministers one time or other. are very agitated against the top leaders of the Government. Their position in the constituencies is shaky. They may join any party that may be floated by any big rebellious leader.

On the other hand a strong and active circle has been formed surrounding Tarek Rahman. State Ministers Amanullah Aman, Ehsanul Haque Milon, Salah Uddin Ahmed, Iqbal Hasan Mahmood Tuku; Deputy Ministers Abdus Salam Pinto. Asadul Habib Dulu. Ruhul Quddus Talukdar Dulu; MPs Ali Asghar Lobby, Nazim Uddin Alam, Zahiruddin Swapan, Moazzam Hossain Alal, Nadim Mostafa, Abul Khair Bhuiya. Ilyas Ali, Shahiduddin Anny. Habibul Islam Habib. Mafiqul Hasan Tripti; and others belong to this circle.

On the one hand there is the flame of revolt in the BNP and on the other the continuing mass movement for electoral reforms led by the 14 party combine under the leadership of Awami League is heading towards an explosion. Mass upsurge at Kansat and Shanir Akhra to demand electricity and sudden shivering revolt among the garment workers are taken as the signal of the greater mass movement by many people. To bail out of this panic-stricken situation and to prevent the rebellion within and outside, the bewildered government may resort to rash decision. The growing ferocity of the partisan police force to suppress any protest anywhere is a sign of the nervousness of the government.

Failing to ward off the crisis, if Khaleda Zia, her two sons and brother Sayeed Eskander, suddenly leave this country to protect themselves from public rage and to save their money and wealth accumulated through corruption and loot, then there will be nothing to be surprised.

BEHIND THE DISCONTENT OF GARMENT LABOURERS

The major part of export earnings comes from readymade garments. This industry started growing from the beginning of 1980s. About 2 million labourers are now engaged in this sector out of which about 80 percent are women. Most of the existing factories of about 3000 are located in Dhaka, Narayanganj and the neighbourhood. A considerable number of ancillary industrial units have also sprung up. The employment of very poor and unskilled labourers in garment factories coming from rural villages has helped them to earn their livelihood and this has led to the growth of production of low-cost commodities, cosmetic and hygienic industries and various service industries to cater to their needs. As a result garment industry has become a dominating factor in Bangladesh economy. On 22 through 24 May sudden labour unrest exploded in this apparently peaceful sector. When the agitated labourers put forward their demands, they were subjected to repression by the Police and Ansars and they also in turn started arson and vandalism. A great number of industries in Savar, Ashulia, Gazipur and in the Capital city of Dhaka were the targets of frenzied acts of arson, vandalism, theft and looting. Panic was created among the people.

From the very beginning of this incident the government and a section of the owners of the factories started telling that the garment labourers were not involved in these acts of arson and vandalism and a third party is fishing in troubled waters. Without ascertaining the reasons and identifying the offenders, the Government directly announced that Awami League and a foreign country were responsible for these acts. BGMEA leader Morshedi, known for his open BNP affiliation, at the very beginning of the incident on 22nd May announced to the media that India was responsible for these acts. On the other hand on 23`d May when widespread destruction of factories and arson were going on in Dhaka proper the RAB and the police for mysterious reasons remained inactive, even those deployed on duty, who happened to be on the spot did not intervene to stop the acts of violence. The leaders of Government in their usual denial syndrome refused to explore the reasons of labour discontent or even talk to the unhappy owners of garment sector. As if in a planned manner the Rajakar Alliance Government allowed the crisis to drift so as to infuriate the owners and managers of the garment sector and the EPZ industries, including the principal buyer U.S.A and foreign investors. BNP in a meeting at Muktangon on 23'd May threatened to burn the houses of the leaders of Awami League and attack them.

On the other hand, the terrifying situation forced the owners and the Government to sit with the labourers. A tripartite meeting was held on 23`d May where an understanding was reached to accept the reasonable demands of the workers. The factories started working on 25th May, though remained closed on 24` May for security reasons. Normalcy appeared to be restored soon enough. The Government. however. used the opportunity to further its political game of suppressing the Awami League and kept its anti¬AL zeal uninterrupted. They alleged that Awami League leaders instigated the labour discontent in Savar and Ashulia and proceeded against Awami League leader Murad Jong, Upazila President Hasina Dowla and other local leaders of Savar and arrested a number of them, harassed their families and searched their houses.

In the meantime, the discontentment of labourers in Ashulia region again flared up as their demands neither were met nor fulfilled as promised. This time the discontentment took a serious turn especially in factories owned by foreigners in DEPZ. The Government took safety measures but the frightened foreigners closed their factories. However, at last on 4th June a fresh understanding was reached among the Government, the foreign owners. BGMEA and various labour organizations after long and serious discussion. The lack of progress in implementing the understanding and the general untrustworthiness of the government led to a threat of strike by the workers. Thereafter a fresh tri-partite agreement was signed on 12th June. BGMEA, SCOP on behalf of the labour force, and the Government signed this agreement.

A misunderstanding was created in the minds of people as the labor discontent from its very beginning was tried to be colored as a conspiracy of the outsiders. But in reality the root causes are long accumulated grievances, deprivations and inhuman conditions of the laborers and the apathy of both a section of the owners and the government to listen to them. It should also be recalled that the unbridled price-hike of daily necessities during the four and half years of the present government has made the living conditions of the laborers totally unbearable.

Quite a few of the garment factories in Bangladesh have the best of facilities in the country and they are role models for efficient industry in the world with labour welfare high in their list of priorities. Yet at present there is no wage board for the garment workers. Their minimum wage of Tk 900 was fixed a decade ago, which still remains the same. Majority of workers are not given any appointment letters. No overtime is given as per law for working for 10-12 hours in place of 8 hours. In many factories pay and allowances are not paid regularly. There is no security of service, anytime anybody loses his job. Festival bonus, leave, maternal leave to women workers and other safety facilities are not also provided in many factories. Working atmosphere is suffocating and sanitary arrangements are too poor in many factories. Above all in spite of ILO convention and pressure from NGOs and aid agencies the accepted trade union rights are not recognized. The negotiations of the workers in both organized as well as informal ways to press their demands have not yielded any result. Consequently, grievances started accumulating gradually in their minds and just an occasion was enough to flare it up. In the absence of any organized trade union the rightful movement of the workers was not directed properly and hence the spontaneous outburst of helpless took a turn towards a self-destructing mode and they resorted to arson and vandalism.

Inspired accusations have been made against neighbouring foreign powers bent on economic ruination and particularly destruction of the garment industry of Bangladesh. Let us make a dispassionate appraisal of such a threat in the context of global trade of Bangladesh and the investment scenario in the country. Bangladesh exports are growing although there is heavy concentration in the textile sector only. The import bill is also pretty robust and many of the imports of raw materials and intermediate products are needed for the export industry as well. Bangladesh adjusted to the fuel price hike of early 1980s by substantially reducing dependence on imported crude petrol and petroleum products by increasing the exploitation of domestic natural gas. In 2004/05 the import bill for fuel was TK. 59,907 million or near 10 percent of total import. In 2005/06 it is likely to be higher than 20 percent of the import bill of the year. Reduction of import dependence for energy supply needs careful and prompt planning that is entirely lacking now. Diversification of exports into ICT, consumer durables. high valued agricultural products, footwear, toys and furniture must be attempted earnestly. Foreign investment has been concentrated so far on telecommunication, electric power. hydrocarbon exploration and cement sectors. Health, retail trade and financial services, steel production and food processing sectors are the new attractions. A detailed medium term investment policy is the crying need of Bangladesh now. Investment for exports to North East India is a potentially important sector but it is tied down by difficulties with India on energy trade, pipeline construction, highway links and transit traffic. Bangladesh global trade picture is outlined in the note below.1

In the garment industry our competitors are many and most of them are our neighbours such as China, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India. Pakistan and Sri Lanka opposed our claim to duty free trade in garment export as an LLDC under WTO Hong Kong Round negotiations. It was speculated that Bangladesh garment industry would face difficulties with the end of MFA quotas. But fabrics industry and other backward linkage industries are making good progress and the industry itself is facing competition quite well. The growth in knitwear exports is very heart warming and in this case most of the woven fabric is domestically produced. The garment industry altogether, however, is suffering heavily due to two reasons where the incompetent Rajakar government is failing the nation. First is the acute power crisis that has reportedly cut down knitwear output by 30 percent in a period of six months or so. Second, the port facilities are a drag on import of raw materials needed by the industry and supply of foreign orders on time is a Herculean task. Surely the law and order break-down, travel difficulties of foreigners for the notorious reputation of the country in extremism and terrorism, and utter incompetence of the government are some other limiting factors. Bangladesh garment industry imports huge quantities of fabrics and ancillary supplies from China and India. 2 India is also a large. and potentially much larger, investor in Bangladesh. Sri Lanka is not a very powerful competitor and they are out to protect their corner only. Pakistan is a minor trade partner of Bangladesh with imports worth Tk. 8,528 million and exports worth Tk. 3,049 million in 2004/05.

It is Pakistan who takes the greatest interest in turning this country into a failed entity. Extremism in Bangladesh has been initiated and foisted by Pakistan's extremist groups and its diabolical ISI. The Pakistanis cannot easily forget their defeat of 1971 and they still refuse to acknowledge that there was a Liberation War in Bangladesh to drive them out of the country. They still consider that they fought India and "its few miscreants" in East Pakistan in 1971. If Bangladesh can be turned into an ineffective state, they can prove that the war of liberation and the ultimate independence of 1971 was the `folly of Bangalees'. ISI intervention in Bangladesh found a strong hold during the sixteen years of military rule and ISI's traditional links with the Rohingya groups is well-known. Chittagong Peace Accord weakened their position and many of the Indian insurgents' camps in which they were associated were destroyed during the AL period. They got a new lease of life under the Rajakar government of BNP Alliance in 2001.

Many people feel that this movement of labour discontent might have been misdirected by Pakistan's allies in Bangladesh and the active ISI involvement in Bangladesh. Experts have identified Pakistan as the probable strong rival of Bangladesh in international trade in this region. As a cotton producing country it has great advantage in the garment industry and presently it is a small player in the garment industry despite being in the arena for over four decades. Unlike India and China, Pakistan does not enjoy any special advantage in supplying cotton or fabric to Bangladesh garment industry. After the end of garment quotas while China's garment export has gained the most, the gains by India are significant and Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Cambodia are close to that of Bangladesh but Pakistan has lost ground. India and Indonesia are increasing their earnings now mainly by exporting high-valued products while China's growth is in both value and quantity.3

In the over-arching national interest it is essential to have a national consensus to save our industries and especially the garment as well as the fabric industry. The nation working together must fulfill the rightful demands of the labourers, improve the safety conditions in the industry, allow the garment workers to have their own trade union without intervention from outside, and to maintain good relations between workers and owners. We expect that all the parties signing the agreement on 12t" June will be sincere in implementing the agreement. We also expect the nation to be guarded against intervention by external economic rivals.

1 In the total import payments of Bangladesh in 2004/05 in an amount of Tk. 808,947 million, import payments are the highest to India (Tk. 124.646 million), China (Tk. 100,823 million), Singapore (Tk. 54.503 million). Hongkong (Tk. 34,689 million) and Japan (Tk. 34,330 million). In that year, however. large payment was made to Kuwait (Tk. 60,893 million) because of high prices of crude and petroleum products. The first ten countries for Bangladesh exports totaling an amount of Tk 508.349 million are in Europe and North America such as USA (Tk. 114,581 million), Germany (Tk. 68.226 million). UK (Tk. 54,386 million). France (Tk. 35,224 million) and Italy (Tk. 20.390 million). The export earnings from Asian countries are low such as from India (Tk. 5,975 million), Hongkong (Tk. 5,938 million), Pakistan (Tk 3.050 million), China (Tk. 2,781 million). Iran (Tk. 2,760 million) and Singapore UK (Tk. 2,621 million). (BB Compilation 2004/05.) The import payments in 2005/06 are likely to be 5 percent higher with a diminution in volume due to devaluation of Taka and higher world prices of fuel, while export earnings may go up by about 12 percent.

2 In 2004/05 Bangladesh import payment for textiles and textile articles to China was Tk 46.788 million, to India was Tk 18,355 million (probably the same commodities worth an equal amount were smuggled through illegal channels), to Hongkong was Tk. 22,287 million and to Pakistan was Tk. 9.171 million. Other substantial import payments made on this count were Tk. 5,019 million to Thailand. Tk. 4.787 million to USA. Tk 3,879 million to UK, Tk. 3.552 million to Singapore, Tk. 1484 million to Japan. Tk 850 million to Germany and to Italy Tk 732 million (BB Compilation 2004/05)

3 Among the countries in Asia the biggest gainers in order are China, India. Bangladesh. Sri Lanka, Indonesia. Pakistan and Thailand. The losers in order are South Korea, Hongkong, Taiwan and Malaysia. In the first six months after the end of MFA the exports of the following countries were as follows:

Newsletter _______________________
Vol. 5, No-3, June 25, 2006
Bangladesh Awami League Publication